Democrats Believe Trump’s Support Is Undercounted in Polling Data

Some Democratic senators have expressed concerns that support for former President Donald Trump is being underrepresented in polling data, as has been the case during the past two presidential election cycles.

After Trump outperformed polling projections in both 2016 and 2020, Democrats told The Hill that the 2024 election is expected to be close, regardless of current poll numbers. As of Monday afternoon, Trump trails Vice President Kamala Harris by 2.2 points nationally, according to the RealClearPolitics average. This margin is narrower than Biden’s lead over Trump at this point in 2020 (7 points) and Hillary Clinton’s lead over Trump in 2016 (3 points).

“That’s ominous,” said one anonymous Democratic senator while discussing how Trump appears to be performing better in the polls against Harris. “There’s no question that is concerning, but you’re working as hard as you can work, no matter what. My sense there’s not a lot more you can do than we’re already doing.”

The senator added that he believes undercounting support for Trump may be due to people feeling “embarrassed.”

“Most of what he preaches, most of us have taught our children to try to not be that way on the playground,” the senator said. “So there’s a certain amount of reluctance to admit I’m going to vote for somebody whose conduct I tell my children is wrong.”

That remark comes as most Democrats have been painting Trump as a “threat to democracy” after labeling him a “Nazi,” a “fascist,” a “racist,” and a “bigot” — among other names — for years. He and his supporters have blamed Democratic rhetoric for the two assassination attempts against him.

Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA), meanwhile, has warned against putting any stock in polls, arguing, “Polling has really been seriously damaged since 2016. And that’s one of the truths, is that Trump is going to be tough in Pennsylvania, and that’s absolutely the truth.”

Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) said of his battleground state “the only poll that matters is Nov. 5.”

“We know this election is going to be close. It’s going to be close in the battleground states, including Georgia, which is why I’m doing everything I can to make sure we put Georgia in our column,” he said. “The only poll that matters is Nov. 5, right?” He added: “We talk about margin of error for a reason.”

Another Democratic senator who spoke to The Hill on the condition of anonymity said, “I don’t think any poll right now means much of anything.”

“Figuring out the turnout is the hardest thing out there. This cycle there may be a surprise Trump vote and a surprise Harris vote,” Democratic pollster Celinda Lake told The Hill. “I, too, share the concern that there are going to be some surprises. What accentuates my concern is when you poll people who have not voted in ’20 but are planning to vote today, they are disproportionately Trump voters.”

“If you look at first-time voters who didn’t vote in ’20, they are leaning toward Trump and they’re very low information and they like his kind of style,” Lake added. “And they like Elon Musk and they like a lot of things like that. I worry about that. I think it’s definitely a concern, and I think we just have to get enough margin to compensate for that.”

Pennsylvania is shaping up to be perhaps the most important swing state this election cycle, and both candidates have spent a lot of time campaigning there. Earlier this month, Trump told a Pennsylvania crowd that residents had “no choice” but to cast a ballot for him.

“You can sit there and say, ‘I can’t stand that guy, but there’s no way I’m gonna vote for her,’” Trump said.

Trump told the Fox News town hall that Kamala Harris would carry out her threat to impose a ban on fracking in the state.

“Pennsylvania can’t take the chance that that answer is true,” said Trump.